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A Skeptical Layman’s Guide to Anthropogenic Global Warming by Warren Meyer

By Warren Meyer

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Example text

This is what the IPCC models think the climate would be doing without anthropogenic effects (both warming CO2 and cooling sulfates, for example). With the peaked shape (which should actually be even more pronounced if they had followed the mid-century temperature peak to its max) they are saying there is some natural effect that is warming things until 1950 and then turns off and starts cooling, coincidently in the exact same year that anthropogenic effects start taking off. I challenge you to read the IPCC assessment, all thousand or so pages, and find anywhere in that paper where someone dares to say exactly what this natural effect was, or why it turned off exactly in 1950.

This is what the IPCC models think the climate would be doing without anthropogenic effects (both warming CO2 and cooling sulfates, for example). With the peaked shape (which should actually be even more pronounced if they had followed the mid-century temperature peak to its max) they are saying there is some natural effect that is warming things until 1950 and then turns off and starts cooling, coincidently in the exact same year that anthropogenic effects start taking off. I challenge you to read the IPCC assessment, all thousand or so pages, and find anywhere in that paper where someone dares to say exactly what this natural effect was, or why it turned off exactly in 1950.

Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, a trend that has accelerated in the past century, just at the time when the Earth has been getting warmer. The data suggests that changing solar activity is influencing in some way the global climate causing the world to get warmer. We can look at solar output over large time frames by looking at the production of carbon-14 (less is produced in years of high solar activity, and vice versa). The analysis below used the ratio of oxygen isotopes in the stalagmites to estimate the water temperature at the time they were formed.

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